Monday 06/15/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Monday 06/15/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...
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Monday, June 15

With interleague play here, remember there are DHs in games played in the American League parks, no DHs in National League parks.
Under is off to good start in interleague play-- 23-13-3 in NL parks, 26-16-3 in AL, As far as wins/losses go, the AL leads the NL, 45-39.

Hot Pitchers
-- Indians won seven of last nine Pavano starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Bush is 0-3, 6.65 in his last four starts.
-- Lackey is 0-2, 7.45 in his last three starts. Zito has a 7.04 RA in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Indians won five of their last seven games. .
-- Angels won their last three games, scoring 26 runs. Giants won nine of their last ten home games.

Cold Teams
-- Brewers lost six of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Bush starts.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Angels' last eleven road games.
 
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Trend Report


7:05 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CLEVELAND
Milwaukee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee

10:15 PM
LA ANGELS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
LA Angels are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Angels's last 12 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
 
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Golden Contender
Sport: MLB
Game: Milwaukee at Cleveland
Date/Time: 6/15/2009 7:05PM EST
Pick: UNDER 9.5
Reason: On Monday night the Bonus Play is on the under 9.5 runs in the Milwaukee-Cleveland game.Rotation numbers 901/2 at 7:05 eastern.Both of these teams have struggled offensively of late.The Indians especailly.They are hitting under .240 in all interleague games.The Brewers have been anemic of late as well hitting a shade over .240 vs the NL.For the Brewers its righty D.Bush on the hill.In his raod starts this year the Brewers have gone under the total in all 5 starts.The Indians have inconsistent righty C.Pavano going tonight.Pavano was roughed up in his last start allowing 9 runs.However he has been up and down in his starts all year and may be sitting on a soild performance tonight. Take the under 9.5 runs in the Cleveland-Milwaukee game bol GC
 
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Jr Tips

ANGELS vs. GIANTS

With both teams coming off sweeps, the Giants look to shut down a red-hot Angels lineup tonight. The Giants (34-28) have won 14 of their last 19, posting a 2.60 ERA during that span and San Francisco has scored five runs or more for the fourth time in six games. Los Angeles (32-29) hit nine homers and averaged 8.7 runs in sweeping a three-game series from San Diego and now they will face San Francisco's Barry Zito (3-6, 4.09 ERA), who has had trouble keeping the ball in the park. The left-hander won Wednesday night despite pitching five shaky innings, giving up four runs and seven hits in San Francisco's 6-4 victory over Arizona. Zito is 12-9 with a 3.55 ERA in 28 starts against the Angels. Los Angeles will start John Lackey (1-2, 6.61), who was terrible in his last start, allowing nine runs and 11 hits in five innings of Los Angeles' 9-5 loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday night. Tonight, the right-hander who loss in his only start versus the Giants will be facing a San Francisco lineup that is coming off one of its most productive games at home this year, winning for the ninth time in 10 games there. The Giants finished 4 for 6 with runners in scoring position. Both these teams are playing at a high level on offense which will continue tonight especially against these two pitchers that have had trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark. This run total is way too low.

TAKE OVER 8 1/2 RUNS
 
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Jeff Benton

Milwaukee at CLEVELAND

I’ll admit that neither starter pitcher in this contest – Cleveland’s Carl Pavano and Milwaukee’s Dave Bush – is headed to the All-Star Game anytime soon. Both are mediocre at best and have been knocked around on multiple occasions this season, especially lately. That said, both have respectable career numbers against tonight’s opposition – Bush has a 3.00 ERA in three career starts against Cleveland, all of which went under the total; Pavano is 2-2 with a 4.09 ERA in 10 lifetime appearances (eight starts) versus Milwaukee, giving up three earned runs or fewer in seven of the last eight starts.

Also, the under is 5-0 in Bush’s five road starts this season, with an average combined run total of 7.6. And while Pavano has struggled in Cleveland (6.53 ERA), the average runs scored in his five home starts is still just 9.0, which is still less than this posted total tonight.

More than anything, though, this play is about two offenses that are really struggling and two bullpens that have been lights out of late. Over the past 10 games, the Brewers are batting .232 as a team and their relievers have a 2.76 ERA. During that same span, the Indians are hitting .233 overall with a 2.25 bullpen ERA.

Over its last 21 games, Milwaukee has played just six games that featured double-digit run totals, with the last six in a row and nine of the last 10 staying in single digits. Similarly, the Indians have topped 9 ½ runs just six times in their last 17 contests. Throw in the fact that the under is 5-2-1 in the Brewers’ last eight interleague contests and 10-2-1 in Cleveland’s last 13 against the National League (including 7-1-1 at home), and we’ll play this one low.

2♦ Brewers-Indians UNDER
 
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Drew Gordon

Milwaukee +105 at CLEVELAND

Now on a 15-4 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Cubs over the Twins 3-2 Sunday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Milwaukee/Cleveland match-up.

I freely admit the Brewers have not been playing well of late, but let's not get too carried away, 4 of their last 6 losses have been by just 1 run, and their 3.89 team ERA over their L10 games is still better than Cleveland's over the same span (4.04). Not only that, but tonight's pitching match up is not nearly as lopsided as some are making it out to be. Read on...

True, Carl Pavano had a nice 4-start run going, where he was on-point from mid-May to early-June. But his last start is a quick reminder of why he simply cannot be trusted, getting rocked for 9 runs on 11 hits over just 4 2/3 innings against the Royals (at home no less)! Some of you are calling for a bounce back effort here, but I'm not convinced. Pavano is 2-2 with an ugly 6.53 ERA at Progressive Field, and the Brewers are absolutely desperate for a win... But that's only one piece of the puzzle.

On the flip side, Dave Bush has been up and down this season, but overall there's two things you've got like in this match up: A. He's been effective on the road, going 2-2 with a 4.32 ERA. And B. More importantly, he's been solid vs. the Indians in the past, going 0-1, but with a 3.00 ERA in 3 career starts.

Finally, there's all this talk about the Brewers sputtering offense lately, but fact is, the Indians have not been any better. Both teams are batting about .232 over their last 10 games, and let's not forget the Tribe is batting .243 against righties at home, averaging just 4.0 runs in the process. In the end, do not make the mistake of discounting the Brew Crew in this spot, as they are not only desperate for a win, but also have a more favorable pitching match up than most are giving them credit for.

Take Milwaukee behind Bush over Cleveland and Pavano in this MLB match up.

1♦ MILWAUKEE
 
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Craig Davis

Tonight's Bonus Play winner is on the SF Giants over the Angels for two main reasons. First off, the Giants are deadly at home. Other than the Dodgers, I'm not sure I'd trust a team to win a big home game more than I'd trust the San Francisco Giants. They step up their defense at home, they pitch better at home and they hit the ball better at home. Secondly, I just don't trust John Lackey. Sure, I know what type of pitcher he "can" be, but he hasn't proven it yet since coming back from injury, and until he puts it all together, how could I possibly back this guy? Lackey has just one win since he started pitching back in May, and that game finished 10-6, so it's not like he dominated. He just happened to get a bunch of run support and left the game in the 6th inning with the lead. I'm sorry, but I'm not impressed by that and neither should you be. Take the Giants at home at a very fair price to beat the Angels.

2? SAN FRANCISCO
 
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians

(902) Cleveland Indians -$120
(Listing Pavano and Bush)

Indians starting pitcher Carl Pavano had three quality starts in a row before his horrible outing in his last start against Kansas City. I like Pavano to bounce back with a solid performance in this game. Milwaukee's starting pitcher Dave Bush has lost two straight and three out of four starts and has allowed at least three runs in each. His ERA has shot up the charts since it stood at 3.74 after a win on May 19. Take the Tribe here.
 
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Karl Garrett

Milwaukee at CLEVELAND -125

For Monday night, take the Indians over the Brewers.

Milwuakee has been stumbling of late, as the Brewers got edged yesterday against the White Sox, and have now lost their last pair of games, and 6 of their last 7 overall.

Starter Dave Bush has been a loser the last 2 times he has started, and the righty has allowed 12 runs to score in his last 15 innings of work.

Cleveland blanked St. Louis last night to improve their home mark to an even 16-16 for the year, and the Tribe have quietly won 6 of their last 9, and are thinking about first place in the mediocre AL Central.

Carl Pavano had a rough start his last time out, but he has been better than expected for the Indians this season.

Go with the Tribe to down the Brewers.

2♦ CLEVELAND
 
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Tom Freese

Milwaukee at Cleveland

Cleveland is 9-3 their last 12 home games vs. righty starters and they are 28-13 in Game 1 of a series. The Indians starting pitcher Carl Pavano is off his worst outing this year in his last start. We expect him to bounce back in a big way tonight. Milwaukee is 3-7 their last 10 road games and they are 1-6 their last 7 games vs. losing teams. The Brewers are 0-4 their last 4 games vs. righty starters and they are 16-35 in the last 51 road starts made by Dave Bush. PLAY ON CLEVELAND - (Pavano vs. Bush)
 
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LT Profits

Los Angeles Angels @ San Francisco Giants

John Lackey of the Los Angeles Angels does not seem fully recovered since coming off of the Disabled List, and while Barry Zito seems improved, he is still putting too many men on base, so we look for a higher scoring game tonight then some people think.

Lackey did not make his season debut until May 16, and he is just 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA and a horrible 1.60 WHIP in six starts. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball when he is on, but that is just not the case right now as he was bombarded for eight earned runs on 11 hits in only five innings by the Tampa Bay Rays in his last start. Now the Giants may not have the best offense in the world, but they have put up 12 runs in their last two games.

As for Zito, he has a 4.09 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, which is actually an improvement over recent years. However, he has just one Quality Start in his last four outings, surrendering 13 earned runs and 40 baserunners in 23 innings over those appearances. He now has the misfortune of facing a red-hot Angels offense that just scored 26 runs in a three-game weekend sweep of the San Diego Padres.

Look fir this contest to reach a combined output of double-digits.

Pick: Angels/Giants Over 8.5
 
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Bobby Maxwell

L.A. Angels -115 at SAN FRANCISCO

Not too many options when it comes to Monday's Bonus Play, but we do love the Angels tonight going up against the Giants.

After absolutely dominating the Padres over the weekend, the Angels head up the coast to San Francisco for a three-game set against the Giants. We love the way the Angels have been playing lately, as the offense certainly broke out of its slump with 28 runs against San Diego.

Los Angeles closed out its three-game sweep with a 6-0 victory on Sunday and they looked like the Angels everyone expected to see all season. They were hitting with power, getting timely RBIs and had the pitching staff everyone feared when the season opened.

On the hill for Los Angeles tonight is John Lackey (1-2, 6.61 ERA). He hasn't faced the Giants since 2006 when he he held them to one earned run in seven innings but lost 3-2 on two unearned runs. Lackey dominates interlegue play, as the Angels are 16-5 in his last 21 starts against National League teams and they are 6-2 in his last eight against N.L. West teams.

Barry Zito (3-6, 4.09 ERA) is on the mound for the Giants and he is 0-2 in front of the home fans. San Francisco is just 2-7 in Zito's last nine starts at home against teams with winning records, 1-7 in his last eight interleague starts and 0-4 when he faces teams from the A.L. West.

We expect Lackey to continue his domination of National League teams with today's start. Even though he's been a little off this season, he still shut down the Dodgers when he faced them last month. Let's play the Angels in this one behind the pitching of Lackey.

4? L.A. ANGELS
 
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Michael Cannon

LA Angels at SAN FRANCISCO +105

Take the Giants for the home win over the Angels tonight.

Barry Zito will start for San Francisco and he hasn’t been all that bad recently. The left-hander is 2-1 with a 4.32 ERA in his last three starts and since the Angels aren’t the most feared hitting team in the majors Zito should fare well tonight.

It doesn’t hurt that Zito has mucho experience against the Angels’ lineup from his days with Oakland. He’s 12-9 with a 3.55 ERA in 28 career games against the Halos.

John Lackey will start for the Angels and he just hasn’t been able to get it going this year. The right-hander is 1-2 with a 6.61 ERA in six starts so far. Lackey has issued seven walks in just 19 1-3 innings over his last three starts which tells me he doesn’t trust his stuff right now.

Take the Giants as they grab the home win.

2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
 
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Red Dog Sports

Milwaukee at Cleveland
Play Cleveland

Carl Pavano gave up 9 runs in his last start but only gave up 0,3,1 and 3 before that. I look for him to bounce back and pitch well at home. Look for the Indians to win on Monday night.
 
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Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Under 9½

Both of these teams have struggled offensively of late.The Indians especially.They are hitting under .240 in all interleague games.The Brewers have been anemic of late as well hitting a shade over .240 vs the NL.For the Brewers its righty D.Bush on the hill.In his road starts this year the Brewers have gone under the total in all 5 starts.The Indians have inconsistent righty C.Pavano going tonight.Pavano was roughed up in his last start allowing 9 runs.However he has been up and down in his starts all year and may be sitting on a soild performance tonight.
 
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Scott Rickenbach

San Francisco vs Los Angeles Angels

John Lackey of the Angels had a very rough start in his last outing but that was indoors at Tropicana Field. The Angels right-hander has never been a big fan of pitching in domes but he has been a big fan of inter-league action and we expect Lackey to bounce back in this pitchers' park. His only career start at AT & T Park was a very strong one and we expect a repeat here. Lackey is a "gamer" and he'll be fired up to get back on track after struggling at Tampa Bay. However, he's opposed by Barry Zito of the Giants and the San Francisco southpaw is also in strong bounce back mode here.

Zito actually pitched quite well (again) in his most recent start until things came unraveled in the sixth inning. That ended up being Zito's undoing but, overall, he's been rock solid this season since getting over some shakiness in his first two starts this year. That means this one has all the makings of a pitchers duel and one should consider a small play on UNDER the total in San Francisco on Monday night.
 
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Jake Timlin

Bad pitching equals a lot of runs tonight in Cleveland.

In a match up teams that have some pitching, both teams are known for their offense which will be on full display tonight as combined both teams’ average 9.5 runs per game. Now mix in the poor pitching of both starting pitchers tonight and it’s easy to expect a high scoring game.

Pitching for the Indians will be Pavano whose ERA is 5.40 thanks to allowing 9 earned runs in his last start. Bush, meanwhile, will counter with an ERA of 4.58 in twelve starts on the season and an even higher ERA of 7.20 over his last three starts.

In a slugfest take the OVER tonight at Progressive Field.

2♦ Milwaukee & Cleveland OVER
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline, Featured Handicapper
We scored on Sunday with a comp play on the Lakers-Magic UNDER the total.

Now 9-2 the last 11 days with our comp plays!

Limited action tonight, but we do like the Giants to continue their winning ways against the Angels.

LA comes into this one riding a 3-game winning streak, but the Angels are just 15-17 away from home this season.

San Francisco is also riding a 3-game win streak, and the Giants have won 7 of their last 10 overall. Also note the Giants are an outstanding 21-9 at home this season!

Barry Zito has won his last pair of starts, and sports a 2.70 ERA in his home park this season.

John Lackey counters coming off an 8-run bombing in just 5 innings of work at Tampa Bay, and his season ERA stands at 6.61.

Go with The Giants to continue their hot play at home.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
 

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